Democracy? It comes in waves and we are riding the decline
Democracy is a fragile thing; conflict is steadfast. After two world wars and numerous other conflicts, it can seem like most of the world has achieved an ideal state wherein the powers of speech and persuasion are more powerful than sheer might. In this state, democracy and capitalism triumphs. In this democratic peace, democracies do not go to war with each other, but instead champions dialogue, persuasion, and compromise to achieve its goals. Here, the rule of law triumphs.
Yet after seemingly perpetual years of increasing liberalization and democratization, it now feels like the world is reverting back to conflict through force. Are we riding the steep decline of global democracy?
The foreword from Global State of Democracy Report 2021 is a telling look into this global democratic decline:
“Myanmar, which had been a fledgling democracy just beginning to recover from decades of military rule, fell victim to a military coup, the leaders of which even cited faulty elections as the justification for their course of action. Perhaps the greatest blow to democratic ideals was the fall of the people’s government in Afghanistan, which has seen war being waged for the sake of preserving democratic principles. Significantly, the United States, the bastion of global democracy, fell victim to authoritarian tendencies itself, and was knocked down a significant number of steps on the democratic scale.”
Just two months into 2022, many more global developments could be added to this report. For the first time in Canadian history, the Canadian government enacted the “Emergency Measures Act” in response to the illegal occupation and financially-damaging “Freedom Convoy” against pandemic measures. In the east, China is increasingly becoming forceful in their bid to absorb the democratic city of Hong Kong despite many protests and opposition from pro-democracy groups. Most recently, Russia’s aggressive invasion into Ukraine without diplomatic measures can feel like the scary start of another war, and even worse, a nuclear warfare. In these cases, it seems as though the global democratic peace has come to a halt. Is this the end of the world’s pursuit for democracy?
Beyond international relations, it seems that even citizens of democratic states are starting to grow discontent with the prevailing democratic systems and liberal institutions, and are beginning to favour more authoritarian ideologies. As evident in history and recent development of world affairs, the path towards democracy is not linear. Like a wave that both advances and retreats, perhaps democracy is on a recent trend of decline, and that is due in part to the rising dissatisfaction in democracy and the ascent of populism.
It can seem like forever that democracy has governed the international relations of the world’s states. After all, the world seems better off now as a democratic-majority state system with 59% of countries classified as an electoral democracy. For most of history, it has not always been the case. Samuel Huntington theorizes that the spread of consolidated democracy comes in waves.
The first surge came two centuries ago, when the U.S. and Canada broke away from the British monarchy. The first wave peaked at 29 democratic states but began its decline in the 1920s. The second democratic surge came with the victory of allied forces in World War II and peaked with 36 democratic states. This time, the decline came as Chile, Argentina, and Brazil fell to military coup.
Huntington argues that the world is now in its third wave which started in 1974 when Portugal defeated their fascist government. Greece and Spain soon followed, and a wave of Latin American countries like Peru, Bolivia and Brazil, Asian countries like Taiwan and South Korea, and European countries like Poland, Hungary, and Bolivia all became democratic. Within this wave, the world even witnessed the fall of the Soviet Union to democracy, and the end of apartheid in South Africa that led to a multi-racial democracy. At its peak in 2020, the total number of democratic states reached 115 countries in this third wave.
Important domestic and international factors contributed to this much larger third wave. In the 1970s, the poor economic performance of authoritarian regimes challenged the legitimacy of their rule at home and led to their demise. In particular, when the Soviet Union centralized their power with a planned economy, their economic growth stagnated and citizens began to compare their regime with a democratic Germany’s continued economic growth, which began to undermine the legitimacy of the state. In contrast, the citizens in authoritarian regimes that did experience sustained economic growth further viewed these restrictive regimes as illegitimate; the growing middle class wanted better social conditions and political decisions that only democracy can offer.
Democratic foreign policies of global superpowers like the United States and the European Union began to bleed off on non-demoractic states. To join these global superpowers and the benefits of their trade relationships and large economies, a state must be a democracy. This created and still creates an incentive for elite citizens to push for and support a shift towards democracy. Interestingly, beyond the borders of these non-democratic and democratic states, the media and internet has been one of the largest proponents of democracy. Citizens that see examples of mobilization for pro-democracy in other locations encourage others in the world to mobilize as well. Shows like Dallas that flaunted the freedoms and wealth of United States citizens is sometimes even credited for the fall of the Soviet Union.
The movement towards democracy seems particularly impressive in this third wave. However, the world seems to be on the cusp of the reverse wave, where progress towards democracy is undone, and autocracy begins to emerge again. In the past 14 years, democracy has been on a decline. The Freedom House’s Freedom Score assigned to each state is continuously declining, and fair and competitive elections, respect for the rule of law, and/or protection of minority rights are no longer being upheld at the utmost. There are different domestic and international factors that might explain these apparent “deconsolidation” of democracy in some states.
The largest domestic factor contributing to the decline of democracy is the rise of populism, and with it the growing dissatisfaction of citizens towards the democratic system. Populism has two claims: elites and outsiders work against the interests of the “true people”, and that nothing should stand in the way of the voices of the “true people”. That is to say that the voices of the people are drowned out by the current democratic institutions, and that mainstream democracy prevents the will of the people from being realized; perhaps due to the stronghold of the elites and the migration factors that bring different interests that do not necessarily reflect that of the “true people”.
With this view, populism has given rise to the concerning dissatisfaction of citizens towards democracy as a whole. According to the 2020 Cambridge University report, more than 50% of all democratic states citizens are dissatisfied with democracy. They say that consolidated democracies like North America and Western Europe are no longer effective in giving voice to the people and that citizens are less hopeful that they might influence any change in public policy or the political system.
On top of this growing dissatisfaction against democracy, ideological and material influence are starting to shift internationally. With the rise of China and its economic influence, democratic states are losing influence over their foreign policies. Democratic states can no longer pressure non-democratic states to switch to democracy since the center of the global economy is no longer the democratic majority. Non-democratic states can now receive foreign aid from rich actors like China, and no longer have to rely on democratic states like the United States. Along with economic influence, China’s rapid economic growth has also reinvigorated the rise of authoritarian ideals championed by China. At this point, the tables are starting to turn and those that live in democratic states are now looking at the economic prosperity of non-democratic states and are growing dissatisfied with the democratic system and are now beginning to question the legitimacy of democracy’s claims.
For much of history, democracy has been an exception and not the rule. With the democratic waves that come and go, the world must keep progressing to find the ideal balance between democracy and anarchy.
To quote John Green, “The arc of history is long… let’s hope that it bends towards peace.”
